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新冠疫情疊加通脹,全球啤酒行業面臨復雜形勢

新冠疫情疊加通脹,全球啤酒行業面臨復雜形勢

Adrian Croft 2021年08月29日
受新冠疫情影響和長期趨勢推動,啤酒行業的復蘇一直不均衡。

隨著新冠疫情的限制逐漸放松,各地的不少酒吧和餐館重新開業,全球最大啤酒商的利潤也蒸蒸日上,但從大麥到鋁等各種大宗商品通脹猖獗,其今明兩年的利潤空間可能再次遭受擠壓。

新冠疫情迫使多國酒吧、俱樂部和酒店關閉,南非和泰國甚至暫時禁止酒精銷售。經歷了艱難的一年后,大型啤酒商嘉士伯(Carlsberg)也報告稱業務正在復蘇。

8月18日,嘉士伯表示,上半年收入增長10%,略低于50億美元,凈利潤同比增長6%,預測2021年全年營業利潤將增長8%至11%,高于此前5%至10%的目標。

嘉士伯稱,相關數據比起2019年上半年新冠疫情爆發前還要強勁,該公司還表示,全球最大的啤酒市場中國業務勢頭穩健。

然而,嘉士伯及競爭對手復蘇不能僅僅歸因于全球餐飲行業重新開放。不管是嘉士伯還是其競爭對手,包括全球領先的百威英博公司(Anheuser-Busch InBev)和排名第二的啤酒制造商喜力(Heineken),都要迅速在B2B和DTC(直接面向消費者)模式中壯大線上渠道,以便靈活適應封閉的世界。

如今的飲酒者越來越多地前往超市購買啤酒,晚上外出喝啤酒越發少,所以釀酒巨頭不得不減少桶裝啤酒供應,轉而生產更多的罐裝啤酒。為了滿足更注重健康的公眾需求,啤酒商還迅速增加了低酒精和無酒精啤酒,也在尋找多樣化替代品,比如硬蘇打和風味酒精汽水之類,在美國等地方很受歡迎。

與此同時,三家啤酒商都在努力鼓勵飲酒者轉向高品質、高利潤的品牌。

嘉士伯在最新報告中表示,無酒精啤酒銷量增長了26%。百威英博旗下的“Beyond Beer”業務主要銷售硬蘇打、罐裝葡萄酒和雞尾酒,二季度收入增長45%,一杯杯算下來利潤比傳統啤酒銷售高出20%。

恢復不均衡

受新冠疫情影響和長期趨勢推動,啤酒行業的復蘇一直不均衡。

6月和7月初的歐洲杯期間,很多國家的酒吧重新開張,西歐的啤酒銷量大幅增長。

但嘉士伯的首席執行官郝瀚思(Cees’t Hart)表示,與新冠病毒相關的不確定性依然存在,越南、印尼和泰國等東南亞國家受到德爾塔變異病毒重創,新冠疫苗接種率較低的國家面臨大量感染和死亡。

“盡管整個歐洲市場逐漸恢復到正常環境,但在其他地區特別是亞洲市場,由于新一波感染,種種限制仍然很嚴格。”他說。

各大啤酒商在美國遇到的問題并不一樣,因為2019年新冠病毒來襲之前美國啤酒消費量就已經下降數年,而葡萄酒和烈酒的消費量逐漸上升。疫情期間趨勢仍然在繼續。飲料市場分析公司IWSR稱,2020年酒精飲料銷量增長2%,為2002年以來最大增幅。去年美國烈酒銷量增長近5%,而啤酒銷量下降近3%。

通脹影響即將來臨

很大程度上來說,新冠疫情對啤酒消費的影響已成過去,前方最大的陰霾則是通貨膨脹。

嘉士伯的首席財務官海涅·達爾斯高告訴分析師,由于大麥、制作易拉罐的鋁和制作塑料包裝的原油等投入品成本增加,明年公司將面臨更大挑戰。

他說,很多市場都面臨易拉罐供應短缺,運輸業受到擠壓,例如英國卡車司機就很緊缺。

啤酒商采取對沖措施后,有機會免受今年成本上漲的全面影響,但2022年影響可能加重,除非啤酒商將額外成本轉嫁給消費者,要么就在其他地方節省開支。

達爾斯高表示,嘉士伯目標是提價或銷售更高價的產品,利用啤酒獲取更高收入,以彌補成本上升。

過去幾周發布最新盈利報告時,百威英博和喜力也抱怨了成本壓力。

喜力表示,今年下半年開始,公司將受到大宗商品成本上漲影響,2022年將受到“重大影響”。喜力的首席執行官多爾夫·范·丹·布林克指出,雖然該公司有對沖頭寸,跟供應商也簽訂了長期合同,暫時不會受到部分價格上漲影響,不過大宗商品價格攀升對“明年將造成很大影響。”

范·丹·布林克認為,高通脹的影響不僅限于制造啤酒的谷物。

“幾乎涵蓋了各種商品;現貨價格增長達兩位數。公路運輸、海運、鋁、塑料、糖,無論哪種商品,通貨膨脹都很快。”本月他接受美國消費者新聞與商業頻道(CNBC)采訪時表示。

喜力稱,由于通貨膨脹,預計2021年下半年營業利潤率將低于去年同期。公司還表示,全年財務業績仍將低于2019年。

盡管預估謹慎,上半年喜力業績還是超出了分析師的預期,啤酒銷量增長了10%,營業利潤翻了一番,達到16.3億歐元(19億美元)。

旗下擁有百威(Budweiser)、時代啤酒(Stella Artois)和科羅娜(Corona)的百威英博二季度收入增長27%,達到135億美元,超過了新冠疫情前的水平,而核心收入增長31%,達到48.5億美元。不過結果不及分析師預期,百威英博表示,由于供應鏈收緊造成成本上升,二季度美國業務核心利潤略有下降。

嘉士伯股價2020年的跌幅已經完全漲回,目前股價比新冠疫情爆發前的2020年1月峰值高出約3%。喜力股價較2020年的高點仍然跌去了約10%,而百威英博的股價較2020年年初大幅下跌了30%。(財富中文網)

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

隨著新冠疫情的限制逐漸放松,各地的不少酒吧和餐館重新開業,全球最大啤酒商的利潤也蒸蒸日上,但從大麥到鋁等各種大宗商品通脹猖獗,其今明兩年的利潤空間可能再次遭受擠壓。

新冠疫情迫使多國酒吧、俱樂部和酒店關閉,南非和泰國甚至暫時禁止酒精銷售。經歷了艱難的一年后,大型啤酒商嘉士伯(Carlsberg)也報告稱業務正在復蘇。

8月18日,嘉士伯表示,上半年收入增長10%,略低于50億美元,凈利潤同比增長6%,預測2021年全年營業利潤將增長8%至11%,高于此前5%至10%的目標。

嘉士伯稱,相關數據比起2019年上半年新冠疫情爆發前還要強勁,該公司還表示,全球最大的啤酒市場中國業務勢頭穩健。

然而,嘉士伯及競爭對手復蘇不能僅僅歸因于全球餐飲行業重新開放。不管是嘉士伯還是其競爭對手,包括全球領先的百威英博公司(Anheuser-Busch InBev)和排名第二的啤酒制造商喜力(Heineken),都要迅速在B2B和DTC(直接面向消費者)模式中壯大線上渠道,以便靈活適應封閉的世界。

如今的飲酒者越來越多地前往超市購買啤酒,晚上外出喝啤酒越發少,所以釀酒巨頭不得不減少桶裝啤酒供應,轉而生產更多的罐裝啤酒。為了滿足更注重健康的公眾需求,啤酒商還迅速增加了低酒精和無酒精啤酒,也在尋找多樣化替代品,比如硬蘇打和風味酒精汽水之類,在美國等地方很受歡迎。

與此同時,三家啤酒商都在努力鼓勵飲酒者轉向高品質、高利潤的品牌。

嘉士伯在最新報告中表示,無酒精啤酒銷量增長了26%。百威英博旗下的“Beyond Beer”業務主要銷售硬蘇打、罐裝葡萄酒和雞尾酒,二季度收入增長45%,一杯杯算下來利潤比傳統啤酒銷售高出20%。

恢復不均衡

受新冠疫情影響和長期趨勢推動,啤酒行業的復蘇一直不均衡。

6月和7月初的歐洲杯期間,很多國家的酒吧重新開張,西歐的啤酒銷量大幅增長。

但嘉士伯的首席執行官郝瀚思(Cees’t Hart)表示,與新冠病毒相關的不確定性依然存在,越南、印尼和泰國等東南亞國家受到德爾塔變異病毒重創,新冠疫苗接種率較低的國家面臨大量感染和死亡。

“盡管整個歐洲市場逐漸恢復到正常環境,但在其他地區特別是亞洲市場,由于新一波感染,種種限制仍然很嚴格。”他說。

各大啤酒商在美國遇到的問題并不一樣,因為2019年新冠病毒來襲之前美國啤酒消費量就已經下降數年,而葡萄酒和烈酒的消費量逐漸上升。疫情期間趨勢仍然在繼續。飲料市場分析公司IWSR稱,2020年酒精飲料銷量增長2%,為2002年以來最大增幅。去年美國烈酒銷量增長近5%,而啤酒銷量下降近3%。

通脹影響即將來臨

很大程度上來說,新冠疫情對啤酒消費的影響已成過去,前方最大的陰霾則是通貨膨脹。

嘉士伯的首席財務官海涅·達爾斯高告訴分析師,由于大麥、制作易拉罐的鋁和制作塑料包裝的原油等投入品成本增加,明年公司將面臨更大挑戰。

他說,很多市場都面臨易拉罐供應短缺,運輸業受到擠壓,例如英國卡車司機就很緊缺。

啤酒商采取對沖措施后,有機會免受今年成本上漲的全面影響,但2022年影響可能加重,除非啤酒商將額外成本轉嫁給消費者,要么就在其他地方節省開支。

達爾斯高表示,嘉士伯目標是提價或銷售更高價的產品,利用啤酒獲取更高收入,以彌補成本上升。

過去幾周發布最新盈利報告時,百威英博和喜力也抱怨了成本壓力。

喜力表示,今年下半年開始,公司將受到大宗商品成本上漲影響,2022年將受到“重大影響”。喜力的首席執行官多爾夫·范·丹·布林克指出,雖然該公司有對沖頭寸,跟供應商也簽訂了長期合同,暫時不會受到部分價格上漲影響,不過大宗商品價格攀升對“明年將造成很大影響。”

范·丹·布林克認為,高通脹的影響不僅限于制造啤酒的谷物。

“幾乎涵蓋了各種商品;現貨價格增長達兩位數。公路運輸、海運、鋁、塑料、糖,無論哪種商品,通貨膨脹都很快。”本月他接受美國消費者新聞與商業頻道(CNBC)采訪時表示。

喜力稱,由于通貨膨脹,預計2021年下半年營業利潤率將低于去年同期。公司還表示,全年財務業績仍將低于2019年。

盡管預估謹慎,上半年喜力業績還是超出了分析師的預期,啤酒銷量增長了10%,營業利潤翻了一番,達到16.3億歐元(19億美元)。

旗下擁有百威(Budweiser)、時代啤酒(Stella Artois)和科羅娜(Corona)的百威英博二季度收入增長27%,達到135億美元,超過了新冠疫情前的水平,而核心收入增長31%,達到48.5億美元。不過結果不及分析師預期,百威英博表示,由于供應鏈收緊造成成本上升,二季度美國業務核心利潤略有下降。

嘉士伯股價2020年的跌幅已經完全漲回,目前股價比新冠疫情爆發前的2020年1月峰值高出約3%。喜力股價較2020年的高點仍然跌去了約10%,而百威英博的股價較2020年年初大幅下跌了30%。(財富中文網)

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

The fizz is back in the profits of the world’s biggest brewers as bars and restaurants in many parts of the world reopen with the easing of COVID restrictions, but rampant inflation in everything from barley to aluminum could put a squeeze on their margins through this year and the next.

Carlsberg is the latest big brewer to report a recovery in its business after a rough year in which the pandemic forced the closure of pubs, clubs, and hotels in many countries and even led South Africa and Thailand to temporarily ban alcohol sales.

Carlsberg said August 18 its revenues grew by 10% in the first half to just under $5 billion, while net profit rose 6% from a year earlier, and it forecast that operating profit for the whole of 2021 would grow by between 8% and 11%, higher than the previous 5% to 10% target.

The figures were ahead of comparable results for the first half of 2019, before the pandemic struck, Carlsberg said, and it reported strong business in China, the world’s biggest beer market.

Carlsberg’s recovery—and that of its competitors—cannot be chalked up only to the reopening of the world’s hospitality sector, however. Carlsberg and its rivals, global leader Anheuser-Busch InBev and No. 2 brewer Heineken, have had to be nimble to adapt to a locked-down world, rapidly expanding their online channels, both business-to-business and direct-to-consumer.

With drinkers buying more beer from supermarkets and less on a night out, the brewing giants have had to produce more beer in cans instead of barrels. To meet demand from a more health-conscious public, they have also rapidly stepped up sales of low- and no-alcohol beers and are diversifying into alternatives, such as hard seltzer, flavored alcoholic fizzy water that has been a hit in the United States and elsewhere.

At the same time, all three brewers are pushing ahead with their efforts to encourage drinkers to switch to higher-quality, more profitable brands.

In its latest report, Carlsberg said sales of alcohol-free brews grew 26% by volume. And AB InBev’s “Beyond Beer” business, which sells hard seltzers and canned wines and cocktails, grew revenue by 45% in the second quarter, delivering 20% higher profits glass-for-glass than traditional beer.

Uneven recovery

The beer world’s recovery has been an uneven one, driven by both COVID news and long-term trends.

Beer sales in Western Europe were boosted in June and early July when the reopening of bars and pubs in many countries coincided with the European soccer championship.

But Carlsberg CEO Cees ’t Hart said COVID-related uncertainty persisted, with Southeast Asian nations such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand hit hard by the Delta variant, causing high numbers of infections and death in countries with low vaccination rates.

“Although we see a gradual return to a more normal environment in markets across Europe, other markets, particularly in Asia, remain subject to severe restrictions due to new waves of the infection,” he said.

The brewers have a different problem in the U.S., where beer drinking had been declining for several years even before the arrival of COVID-19, while wine and spirits consumption rose. That trend continued during the pandemic: Alcohol sales rose 2% by volume in 2020, the biggest increase since 2002, according to drinks market analyst IWSR. U.S. spirits sales rose nearly 5% by volume last year, but beer sales fell nearly 3%.

Inflation on the horizon

With the pandemic’s effects on beer consumption largely in the rearview mirror, the largest cloud on the horizon is inflation.

Carlsberg chief financial officer Heine Dalsgaard told analysts the company would face a significantly greater challenge next year from increased costs for inputs such as barley, aluminum to make cans, and oil used to make plastic packaging.

Cans were in short supply in many markets, he said, and there were squeezes on transportation, such as a lack of truck drivers in the U.K.

Hedging will likely protect brewers from the full impact of cost increases this year, but the input price increases could bite in 2022 unless brewers can pass on the extra costs to consumers or save money elsewhere.

Dalsgaard said Carlsberg would aim to recoup increased costs by extracting higher revenues from its beer, either through price hikes or by selling more higher-priced products.

AB InBev and Heineken also complained of cost pressures when they released their latest earnings updates in the past few weeks.

Heineken said higher commodity costs would start to affect the company in the second half of this year and would have a “material impact” in 2022. CEO Dolf van den Brink said that while his firm’s hedged positions and long-term contracts with suppliers sheltered it from part of the price increases for now, commodity price inflation “will particularly impact us next year.”

Van den Brink noted that high inflation did not just affect the grain used to make beer.

“It’s across almost any commodity type; you see double-digit increases in the spot prices. It’s in road transportation, it’s in ocean freight, it’s in aluminum, it’s in plastic, it’s in sugar—no matter the commodity type, there’s very fast inflation happening,” he said in an interview with CNBC this month.

Heineken said that owing to inflation it expected its operating profit margin to be lower in the second half of 2021 compared with the same period last year. It also said that full-year financial results would remain below those of 2019.

Despite the caution, Heineken beat analysts’ expectations in the first half, with a 10% increase in beer sales by volume and a doubling of operating profit to 1.63 billion euros ($1.9 billion).

At AB InBev, which makes Budweiser, Stella Artois, and Corona, second-quarter revenues rose 27% to $13.5 billion, pulling ahead of pre-pandemic levels, while core earnings rose 31% to $4.85 billion. But the results fell short of analysts’ expectations, and the brewer said that its core profit in the U.S. fell slightly in the second quarter as it absorbed higher costs caused by a tighter supply chain.

Carlsberg shares have recovered all their 2020 losses and now trade about 3% higher than their pre-pandemic January 2020 peak. Heineken shares are still about 10% down from their 2020 highs, while AB InBev’s are down a hefty 30% from the start of 2020.

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